In the setting of probability theory, Dobiński's formula represents the th moment of the Poisson distribution with mean 1. Sometimes Dobiński's formula is stated as saying that the number of partitions of a set of size equals the th moment of that distribution.
The computation of the sum of Dobiński's series can be reduced to a finite sum of terms, taking into account the information that is an integer. Precisely one has, for any integer
provided (a condition that of course implies , but that is satisfied by some of size ). Indeed, since , one has
Therefore for all
so that the tail is dominated by the series , which implies , whence the reduced formula.
The coefficient of in this power series must be , so
Another style of proof was given by Rota.[3] Recall that if and are nonnegative integers then the number of one-to-one functions that map a size- set into a size- set is the falling factorial
Let be any function from a size- set into a size- set . For any , let . Then is a partition of . Rota calls this partition the "kernel" of the function . Any function from into factors into
one function that maps a member of to the element of the kernel to which it belongs, and
another function, which is necessarily one-to-one, that maps the kernel into .
The first of these two factors is completely determined by the partition that is the kernel. The number of one-to-one functions from into is , where is the number of parts in the partition . Thus the total number of functions from a size- set into a size- set is
the index running through the set of all partitions of . On the other hand, the number of functions from into is clearly . Therefore, we have
Rota continues the proof using linear algebra, but it is enlightening to introduce a Poisson-distributedrandom variable with mean 1. The equation above implies that the th moment of this random variable is
where stands for expected value. But we shall show that all the quantities equal 1. It follows that
and this is just the number of partitions of the set .
The quantity is called the th factorial moment of the random variable . To show that this equals 1 for all when is a Poisson-distributed random variable with mean 1, recall that this random variable assumes each value integer value with probability . Thus